News & Investment Updates From Refined Retirement

One of the hardest things in investing is doing nothing — not out of neglect, but on purpose.

At Refined Retirement, we believe in acting when conditions warrant it — and holding firm when they don’t. That’s the nature of a rules-based process: trade when the data says to, and stay put when it doesn’t.

This is one of those times. With both market activity and portfolio adjustments remaining minimal, our strategies haven’t needed to shift. And that’s not a sign of weakness — it’s a sign that our positioning is aligned with the current environment.

In this month’s Investment Update we reflect on the value of staying still when the system calls for it — and why restraint, not reaction, is often the clearest expression of discipline.

But first, here’s a summary of the global asset classes utilized in our portfolios and their exposures for August.

Every June, we find ourselves doing the same thing: reviewing the first half of the year and comparing reality to expectations. Not because we believe predictions drive portfolios, but because the gap between what people thought would happen and what actually happened is often the most instructive part of the investing process.

Take small caps, international stocks, or interest rates — all areas where prevailing forecasts heading into 2025 have missed the mark.

Although we think they can be foolish, this isn’t necessarily a critique of the forecasts themselves. It’s a reminder that the most important thing in investing isn’t being right — it’s about having a process and being prepared regardless of what happens.

That’s why at Refined Retirement, we design systems that can adapt to shifting conditions without relying on foresight. When small caps looked poised for a breakout, our models stayed cautious. When international equities still seemed out of favor, our systematic investing process told us to lean in.

In this month’s Note, we reflect on what’s unfolded so far in 2025 — not to pat ourselves on the back or call out misplaced predictions, but to reinforce the value of a systematic, long-term mindset in a world that keeps trying to throw curveballs.

But first, here’s a summary of the global asset classes utilized in our portfolios and their exposures for July.